In brief

The market raised its 2026 deficit forecast to R$ 53 billion.

Gross debt is seen at 83.4% of GDP.

What we know

04

  1. Verified fact · material

    The October Prisma Fiscal median for the central government's 2026 primary deficit rose to R$ 53.05 billion from R$ 52.27 billion in the previous survey.

    Fiscal deterioration.

    Sources[01][02][03][04]

  2. Verified fact · material

    The forecast for gross debt at end-2026 rose to 83.4% of GDP from 83.2%.

    Higher debt.

    Sources[01][04][05]

  3. Verified fact

    According to the Finance Ministry, the 2027 deficit forecast fell to R$ 44 billion.

    Relief in 2027.

    Sources[01]

  4. Verified fact

    Reuters, via UOL, reported that economists worsened deficit and debt forecasts for 2026.

    Reading.

    Sources[05]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

The revision is small but reinforces the perception of fiscal deterioration amid the election.

Portfolio impact

01
Juros futurosnegative

Fiscal deterioration pressures long rates.

Small revision.

What would change the view: Further downward revisions.

rates30% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • Bimonthly revenue and spending report
  • Long-end yield curve

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • Prisma Fiscal gathers market expectations, not actual results.

Full sources

05
01
Ministério da FazendaPrisma Fiscal eleva projeção de déficit para 2026 e reduz estimativa para 2027official source
02
CNN BrasilMercado eleva projeção de déficit em 2026 para R$ 53 bi, diz Prisma Fiscalindependent newsroom
03
Poder360Mercado eleva projeção de déficit primário de 2026 a R$ 53,05 biindependent newsroom
04
Correio BrazilienseProjeção para déficit em 2026 sobe a R$ 53 bi, aponta Prisma Fiscalindependent newsroom
05
UOL EconomiaEconomistas pioram previsões para déficit fiscal e dívida pública em 2026, mostra Prismaindependent newsroom
06