In brief
The first poll after the Supreme Court crisis did not move the first round.
Government disapproval opened the year's widest gap and the runoff remains tied, with the Northeast, the PT's historical base, signalling erosion.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
In the Genial/Quaest poll conducted September 3-6 with 2,004 interviews and a 2-point margin, Lula has 36% and Flávio Bolsonaro 29% in the first round, with Augusto Cury at 8%, Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos at 3% and Romeu Zema at 2%, per Money Times, Seu Dinheiro and g1.
Sets the race a month before the first round.
Verified fact · material
Disapproval of the Lula government reached 50% and approval 43% in the same poll, against 48% disapproval in August and 47% in July, the widest gap between disapproval and approval the institute has recorded this year, per Exame and g1.
Shows the government's erosion before the election.
Verified fact
In the simulated runoff, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tie at 41% each, with 13% blank or spoiled and 5% undecided; Lula slipped from 37% to 36% in the first round versus the August 2 poll, per Money Times.
Confirms the election remains open.
Sources[01]Verified fact
In the Northeast, government disapproval rose from 29% in July to 35%, per Exame; Exame also reports Lula leads among voters whose income outpaced the cost of living, 77% to 14%, and Flávio among those who lost purchasing power, 55% to 26%.
Explains the economic channel of the vote.
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
Markets price less the name and more the odds of a government with a credible fiscal anchor.
A tied runoff prolongs volatility in the currency and the long end, and the Northeast deterioration suggests food and services inflation weighs more than income.
Portfolio impact
02A runoff tie keeps the election premium in the currency until the next government's fiscal picture is defined.
Volatility, without a clear direction.
What would change the view: Changes if upcoming polls show one candidate pulling ahead.
Rising disapproval and an open race feed rotation among sectors sensitive to fiscal policy and state-owned companies.
No defined direction.
What would change the view: Depends on foreign flows, which left in August.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- The next Quaest round and September's Datafolha and Ipsos-Ipec polls.
- Government reaction with income measures before the first round.
- Currency and curve volatility around the polls.
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- TSE registrations differ between the electoral poll (BR-01720/2026) and the approval poll (BR-07065/2026), both with the same fieldwork.