Senate approves fiscal adjustment base text 45 to 31

In brief

The Senate approved the fiscal adjustment base text 45 to 31, with a 2% spending cap from 2027.

Amendments are left for Nov 17 and the bill then goes to the lower house.

Verified fact · material
The Senate floor approved the main text of PLP 299/2026 on Nov 12, 2026, by 45 votes to 31.
Moves the adjustment forward.
Sources[01][02][03][04]
Verified fact · material
The text caps real spending growth at 2% from 2027 in containment years, down from 2.5%.
Changes the framework rule.
Sources[01][02][04][05]
Verified fact · material
The Executive projects a R$ 45.1 billion to R$ 56.1 billion improvement in the 2027 primary balance.
Sizes the effect.
Sources[01][03][04][05]
Verified fact · material
Four amendments will be voted on Nov 17, and the bill then goes to the lower house.
Sets next steps.
Sources[01][03][05][06]
Verified fact
The urgency request passed 40 to 38, and rapporteur Eduardo Braga accepted more than 20 amendments.
Shows the narrow margin.
Sources[07][03]
Verified fact
After the vote, minister Bruno Moretti cited a R$ 50 billion fiscal gain plus R$ 10 billion of budget flexibility.
Government reading.
Sources[06]

Transmission to assets

Senate progress is read as a necessary step, but the market remains skeptical about the adjustment size.

DI jan/2035mixed

Fiscal premium on the long curve.

Approval lowers risk, but the size is questioned.

What would change the view: Amendments without dilution.

rates40% confidence

USD/BRLmixed

Fiscal risk in FX.

The real reacts to the adjustment credibility.

What would change the view: Lower house approval.

currency30% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

Limits of the reporting