In brief

The B3B3OrganizationOperator of Brazil's exchange and market infrastructure, listed as B3SA3. Revenue tracks traded volumes; tax and regulatory disputes (Carf, Cade) make up its contingent risk.Open in the Market Map ↗ VIX closed September 14 at 30.15 points, a record since 2024, up 17.87% in September.

The STF crisis, the Fed and the Copom concentrate risk in the same week.

What we know

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  1. Verified fact · material

    The S&P/B3B3OrganizationOperator of Brazil's exchange and market infrastructure, listed as B3SA3. Revenue tracks traded volumes; tax and regulatory disputes (Carf, Cade) make up its contingent risk.Open in the Market Map ↗ Ibovespa VIX closed September 14 at 30.15 points, up 5.24% on the day and 17.87% in September, the highest level since the index launch in March 2024, per B3B3OrganizationOperator of Brazil's exchange and market infrastructure, listed as B3SA3. Revenue tracks traded volumes; tax and regulatory disputes (Carf, Cade) make up its contingent risk.Open in the Market Map ↗ and Exame.

    The number that defines the event.

    Sources[01][02]
  2. Verified fact · material

    The index measures expected implied volatility for the next 30 days from Ibovespa options traded on B3B3OrganizationOperator of Brazil's exchange and market infrastructure, listed as B3SA3. Revenue tracks traded volumes; tax and regulatory disputes (Carf, Cade) make up its contingent risk.Open in the Market Map ↗ and works as a risk perception gauge, per B3B3OrganizationOperator of Brazil's exchange and market infrastructure, listed as B3SA3. Revenue tracks traded volumes; tax and regulatory disputes (Carf, Cade) make up its contingent risk.Open in the Market Map ↗ and Exame.

    What the number means.

    Sources[01][02]
  3. Verified fact

    The previous record was 29.6 points on March 27, 2026, per B3B3OrganizationOperator of Brazil's exchange and market infrastructure, listed as B3SA3. Revenue tracks traded volumes; tax and regulatory disputes (Carf, Cade) make up its contingent risk.Open in the Market Map ↗; Exame attributes the jump to the STF crisis between Moraes and Mendonça, the September 15 hearing, US-Iran tensions and the wait for the Fed and the Copom.

    Previous reference and triggers, one source each.

    Sources[01][02]
  4. Context

    In the same session the Ibovespa fell 0.91% and the dollar rose, with the 10-year Treasury above 5% and fears over artificial intelligence stocks, per InfoMoney.

    Session context.

    Sources[03]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

Record implied volatility makes option hedging dearer and favours volatility-selling strategies if the STF and the Fed bring no surprises.

The 30 point level, comparable to the US VIX in crises, shows domestic risk dominates the equity premium.

Portfolio impact

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Opções de Ibovespa e BOVA11negative

Record implied volatility raises hedging costs and cuts risk appetite.

Negative for the exchange in the immediate term.

What would change the view: Recedes if the STF, the Fed and the Copom pass without surprise.

direct50% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • VIX close after the STF session and the Fed decision on 9/16.
  • Ibovespa option volume on B3B3OrganizationOperator of Brazil's exchange and market infrastructure, listed as B3SA3. Revenue tracks traded volumes; tax and regulatory disputes (Carf, Cade) make up its contingent risk.Open in the Market Map ↗ this week.
  • Comparison with the US VIX.

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • The previous 29.6 point record comes only from B3B3OrganizationOperator of Brazil's exchange and market infrastructure, listed as B3SA3. Revenue tracks traded volumes; tax and regulatory disputes (Carf, Cade) make up its contingent risk.Open in the Market Map ↗.
  • The index has existed since March 2024; records refer to that short series.

Full sources

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