Trade balance posts US$ 9.3 billion surplus in October

In brief

The trade balance posted a US$ 9.3 billion surplus in October.

Exports rose 20% and imports 14.8%.

Verified fact · material
The trade balance posted a US$ 9.3 billion surplus in October 2026, up 39.4% from US$ 6.7 billion in October 2025.
Balance.
Sources[01][02][03]
Verified fact · material
Exports rose 20% and imports 14.8% in October from a year earlier, to US$ 37.8 billion and US$ 28.5 billion.
Flows.
Sources[02][03]
Verified fact
According to Correio Braziliense, the January-October surplus was US$ 71 billion, up 34.1%.
Year to date.
Sources[02]
Verified fact
According to Money Times, the market expected a US$ 9.05 billion surplus in a Reuters poll.
Expectation.
Sources[03]
Verified fact
According to Agência Brasil, it is the largest surplus for an October since 1989.
Record.
Sources[01]

Transmission to assets

The above-forecast surplus reinforces dollar inflows, while imports also grow.

USD/BRLpositive

More export dollars.

Oil falls.

What would change the view: Surplus stays strong.

currency10% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

Limits of the reporting

Agência Brasil published different absolute export and import values from Correio and Money Times; the text uses the latter two.