In brief

Brazil created 165,800 formal jobs in August, according to CagedLabor marketMacroBrazil's employment indicators — Caged (formal payrolls, Labor Ministry), Pnad (IBGE) and earnings — gauging activity and household income.Open in the Market Map ↗.

13 million jobs.

What we know

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  1. Verified fact · material

    The New CagedLabor marketMacroBrazil's employment indicators — Caged (formal payrolls, Labor Ministry), Pnad (IBGE) and earnings — gauging activity and household income.Open in the Market Map ↗ recorded a balance of 165,827 formal jobs in August.

    Measures the formal labor marketLabor marketMacroBrazil's employment indicators — Caged (formal payrolls, Labor Ministry), Pnad (IBGE) and earnings — gauging activity and household income.Open in the Market Map ↗.

  2. Verified fact · material

    From January to August, the balance reaches 1.13 million formal jobs.

    Shows the pace of the year.

    Sources[01][04]
  3. Verified fact

    According to Valor, it is the weakest August since 2020.

    Indicates a slowdown.

    Sources[03]
  4. Verified fact

    According to InfoMoney, the result beat the median market forecast.

    Compares with expectations.

    Sources[04]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

Still-positive employment supports consumption, but the slower pace than in prior years is consistent with the slowdown expected by the central bank.

Portfolio impact

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Juros futurosmixed

Positive but slowing employment weighs little on rate decisions.

Data in line with expectations.

What would change the view: Further slowdown in September.

rates25% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • September CagedLabor marketMacroBrazil's employment indicators — Caged (formal payrolls, Labor Ministry), Pnad (IBGE) and earnings — gauging activity and household income.Open in the Market Map ↗
  • Real income
  • Copom communication on activity

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • The comparison with previous years was reported by a single source read.

Full sources

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