In brief
UnemploymentLabor marketMacroBrazil's employment indicators — Caged (formal payrolls, Labor Ministry), Pnad (IBGE) and earnings — gauging activity and household income.Open in the Market Map ↗ fell to 5.2% in the third quarter.
It is the lowest for the period since 2012.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
The unemploymentLabor marketMacroBrazil's employment indicators — Caged (formal payrolls, Labor Ministry), Pnad (IBGE) and earnings — gauging activity and household income.Open in the Market Map ↗ rate was 5.2% in the quarter ended September 2026, according to IBGE.
Rate.
Verified fact
According to InfoMoney, the rate was 5.4% in the second quarter and 5.6% a year earlier.
Comparison.
Sources[02]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
Low unemploymentLabor marketMacroBrazil's employment indicators — Caged (formal payrolls, Labor Ministry), Pnad (IBGE) and earnings — gauging activity and household income.Open in the Market Map ↗ reduces room for central bank rate cuts.
Portfolio impact
01Strong jobs limit cuts.
Slowdown.
What would change the view: Services inflation.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Average income
- Copom decision
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- Data predate the post-election market shock.