In brief

6%.

6%.

What we know

04

  1. Verified fact · material

    Conab estimated Brazil 2026 coffee output at 67.6 million processed bags, up 19.6% from 2025.

    Measures supply from the largest world producer.

    Sources[01][02]

  2. Verified fact · material

    Arabica should total 48.2 million bags, up 34.8%, and conilon 19.4 million, down 6.6%.

    Shows the breakdown by species.

    Sources[01][02]

  3. Verified fact

    According to Conab, it is the largest crop in its historical series.

    Qualifies the record.

    Sources[01]

  4. Verified fact

    According to Conab, average yield rises 13.8% to 34.6 bags per hectare, and area grows 5.1%.

    Explains the increase.

    Sources[01]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

The projection reinforces a looser supply outlook in the global coffee market, with pressure on international prices, especially arabica.

For domestic inflation, it tends to ease consumer coffee prices with a lag.

Portfolio impact

01
Café arábica e exportadoresnegative

Larger Brazilian supply pressures international prices.

Market already expected a bigger crop.

What would change the view: Favorable weather until the next harvest.

commodity45% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • Fourth Conab survey
  • Arabica prices in New York
  • CecaféCoffeeAssetAgricultural commodity of which Brazil is the largest producer and exporter, traded on ICE (arabica in New York, robusta in London).Open in the Market Map ↗ coffee exports

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • The record refers to the Conab series.

Full sources

02
01
ConabProdução de café é estimada em 67,6 milhões de sacas, influenciada por bienalidade positiva em 2026official source
02
CNN BrasilConab eleva estimativa da safra de café para 67,6 milhões de sacasindependent newsroom
02