In brief
7 billion, corn overtaking sugarcane and coffee at R$ 100 billion.
Harvested area exceeded 100 million hectares for the first time.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
The production value of the main Brazilian crops reached R$ 927.2 billion in 2025, a record and a nominal 18.4% increase over 2024, according to the Municipal Agricultural Production survey released by IBGE on September 17.
Best year of the series in value.
Context
Mato Grosso led with 17.9% of the national value and a 37.1% rise; among municipalities, Sapezal (MT) took the lead with R$ 8.6 billion, followed by São Desidério (BA) with R$ 8.2 billion, and Sorriso fell to third after a neighbouring municipality was created.
Regional concentration of agricultural value.
Sources[04]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
The 2025 record supports trader and input company cash in 2026, but the next cycle faces El Niño and rising fertiliser prices.
SLC, BrasilAgro and coffee cooperatives enter the new crop well capitalised.
Portfolio impact
02The 2025 record crop keeps supply high, but El Niño threatens 2026/27.
Prices already react to climate risk.
What would change the view: Depends on the weather at October planting.
Record soybeanSoybeansAssetBrazil's main agricultural commodity, with the country the world's largest producer and exporter, traded on the CBOT in Chicago and priced at Brazilian ports at a premium over Chicago.Open in the Market Map ↗ and cotton value supports 2025 revenue.
Strong base for the new crop.
What would change the view: Effect already reflected in results.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- First Conab survey of the 2026/27 crop in October
- SoybeanSoybeansAssetBrazil's main agricultural commodity, with the country the world's largest producer and exporter, traded on the CBOT in Chicago and priced at Brazilian ports at a premium over Chicago.Open in the Market Map ↗ and coffee prices under El Niño
- Rural credit under the Plano Safra in the second half
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The size of the climate shortfall in the 2026/27 crop
- The effect of tariffs and the European embargo on 2026 value