In brief
3% in the quarter through August, the lowest for the period.
The employed population hit a record.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
The unemploymentLabor marketMacroBrazil's employment indicators — Caged (formal payrolls, Labor Ministry), Pnad (IBGE) and earnings — gauging activity and household income.Open in the Market Map ↗ rate fell to 5.3% in the quarter ended in August, according to IBGE.
Measures labor marketLabor marketMacroBrazil's employment indicators — Caged (formal payrolls, Labor Ministry), Pnad (IBGE) and earnings — gauging activity and household income.Open in the Market Map ↗ tightness.
Verified fact
According to Agência Brasil, the rate was 5.6% in the previous quarter and average income stood at R$ 3,777.
Completes the picture.
Sources[01]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
UnemploymentLabor marketMacroBrazil's employment indicators — Caged (formal payrolls, Labor Ministry), Pnad (IBGE) and earnings — gauging activity and household income.Open in the Market Map ↗ at a low for the period reinforces Copom caution on services inflation, even with signs of slowing formal employmentLabor marketMacroBrazil's employment indicators — Caged (formal payrolls, Labor Ministry), Pnad (IBGE) and earnings — gauging activity and household income.Open in the Market Map ↗.
Portfolio impact
01A tight labor marketLabor marketMacroBrazil's employment indicators — Caged (formal payrolls, Labor Ministry), Pnad (IBGE) and earnings — gauging activity and household income.Open in the Market Map ↗ reduces room for Selic cuts.
Effect already expected by the market.
What would change the view: Rising real income.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Real income in coming quarters
- Services inflation
- Copom communication
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- Average income was reported by a single source read.