In brief

Federal public debtPublic DebtMacroBrazil's federal public debt stock, its composition by indexer and tenor, and the National Treasury's financing strategy set in the Annual Financing Plan (PAF).Open in the Market Map ↗ rose 0.97% in September.

It reached R$ 9.38 trillion.

What we know

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  1. Verified fact · material

    Federal Public DebtPublic DebtMacroBrazil's federal public debt stock, its composition by indexer and tenor, and the National Treasury's financing strategy set in the Annual Financing Plan (PAF).Open in the Market Map ↗ reached R$ 9.38 trillion in September 2026, according to the National Treasury.

    Stock.

  2. Verified fact · material

    The stock rose 0.97% from August, when it totaled R$ 9.29 trillion.

    Rise.

  3. Verified fact

    According to Agência Brasil, interest accrual was R$ 89.29 billion in the month.

    Interest.

    Sources[01]
  4. Verified fact

    According to Gazeta do Povo, the federal state companies deficit hit a record this year.

    State firms.

    Sources[03]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

High rates make debt grow even with small net issuance.

Portfolio impact

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Juros futurosnegative

Higher debt lifts premium.

Fiscal adjustment.

What would change the view: High rates.

rates15% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • Average debt cost
  • Treasury auctions

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • September data predate the post-election rate shock.

Full sources

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