In brief
The Focus survey released August 17, with data collected through August 14, held the 2026 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ median at 5.02% and 2026 GDPGDPMacroAggregate measure of the goods and services produced by an economy.Open in the Market Map ↗ at 1.98%, per InfoMoney and Correio Braziliense.
For 2027, the growth forecast fell from 1.52% to 1.50%, a fourth straight weekly cut, while the IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ median rose from 4.22% to 4.24%, a two-hundredths move that ends weeks of stability and whose magnitude is marginal.
The end-2026 Selic median held at 13.75% per year, per InfoMoney. The set keeps expected inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ above the target range with activity decelerating.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
The median 2026 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ forecast held at 5.02% in the Focus survey released August 17.
The stability ends the early-August streak of declines and keeps the forecast above the target range's 4.5% ceiling.
Verified fact · material
The median 2027 GDPGDPMacroAggregate measure of the goods and services produced by an economy.Open in the Market Map ↗ growth forecast fell from 1.52% to 1.50%, a fourth consecutive weekly cut.
The cutting streak consolidates the reading of decelerating activity in the next horizon.
Verified fact
Per InfoMoney, the 2027 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ median rose from 4.22% to 4.24%, and the end-2026 Selic median held at 13.75% per year.
The two-hundredths rise in 2027 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ is marginal in magnitude and treated as context, not as a sign of relevant deterioration.
Sources[01]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
Expected inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ parked above the target ceiling with decelerating activity limits room for quick rate relief and sustains the curve premium, a reading reinforced by the Central Bank chief's remarks the same day.
For risk assets, the picture only improves if current inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ data ease without further relevant activity deterioration.
Portfolio impact
01Expected inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ stable above target sustains the curve premium, while projected activity deceleration pulls the other way.
The direction is uncertain because the report's two vectors act on rates in opposite directions.
What would change the view: The curve eases if current inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ recedes; it pressures if the fiscal picture or currency worsen.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- The next Focus medians for IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ and Selic.
- August's IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗-15 and current inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗'s composition.
- Copom communication on the inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗-activity balance.
- GDPGDPMacroAggregate measure of the goods and services produced by an economy.Open in the Market Map ↗ revisions after June's IBC-Br.
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- Focus measures expectations that shift with new data; it does not guarantee realized values.
- The two-hundredths move in 2027 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ may be statistical noise.
- Selic and currency medians were detailed by a single registered group.