IFI estimates R$ 40 billion in measures not in the budget

In brief

IFI estimates R$ 40 billion in measures not in the budget.

The chance of debt topping 90% of GDP rose to 81.6%.

Verified fact · material
IFI estimated at about R$ 40 billion the impact of measures not in the 2026 and 2027 budgets, in its October 2026 report.
Measures.
Sources[01][02][03]
Verified fact · material
IFI estimates at 81.6% the probability of gross debt topping 90% of GDP by 2030.
Debt.
Sources[02][03]
Verified fact
According to Agência Brasil, measures include a Bolsa Família raise, the end of fixed-odds betting and MEI expansion.
Items.
Sources[01]
Verified fact
According to CNN Brasil, the IFI director said a 2027 surplus is unlikely.
2027.
Sources[03]

Transmission to assets

The independent body assessment reinforces market skepticism about the fiscal target.

Juros futurosnegative

Fiscal risk lifts premium.

Credible adjustment.

What would change the view: No adjustment.

rates20% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

Limits of the reporting