In brief

MP 1,395 opens R$ 7.52 billion in credit for fuel subsidies.

R$ 6.17 billion goes to road diesel.

What we know

04

  1. Verified fact · material

    Provisional Measure 1,395/2026, published in the official gazette on October 9, opens an extraordinary credit of R$ 7.52 billion for fuel subsidies.

    Expands subsidy spending.

    Sources[01][02]

  2. Verified fact · material

    Of the total, R$ 6.17 billion funds the road diesel subsidy.

    Diesel concentrates spending.

    Sources[01][02]

  3. Verified fact · material

    Another R$ 1.35 billion goes to the subsidy under MP 1,358/2026.

    Completes the package.

    Sources[01][02]

  4. Verified fact

    According to Agência Senado, the MP only opens the credit and does not change subsidy rules.

    No rule change.

    Sources[01]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

The extraordinary credit reinforces the reading of fiscal loosening during the election period, weighing on the long end of the yield curve, while the diesel subsidy eases freight costs and short-term inflation.

Portfolio impact

01
Juros futuros longosnegative

Extra spending outside the cap weighs on fiscal perception.

Small amount relative to the budget.

What would change the view: More extraordinary credits.

rates30% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • MP's progress in Congress
  • Diesel pump prices

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • The gasoline tax exemption announced the same day was not confirmed in detail by two sources.

Full sources

03
01
Agência SenadoMedida provisória libera R$ 7,52 bilhões para custear subsídios a combustíveisofficial source
02
CNN BrasilGoverno edita MP e libera R$ 7,52 bilhões para subsidiar combustíveisindependent newsroom
03
Valor EconômicoGoverno destina mais R$ 7,5 bi para subvenção de combustível para uso rodoviárioindependent newsroom
06