In brief
The government zeroed PIS/Cofins and Cide on gasoline for 30 days, raising the relief to R$ 0.89 per liter.
The estimated cost is R$ 5.2 billion.
What we know
06Verified fact
According to the Finance Ministry, the measure may be extended and the gasoline and ethanol cost will be offset by extraordinary oil revenue.
Offset source.
Sources[03]Verified fact
According to Gazeta do Povo, Minister Dario Durigan denied the measure has an electoral purpose.
Response to criticism.
Sources[04]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
The relief reduces gasoline's pressure on October IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ and benefits distributors, but the run of waivers and subsidies during the election period weighs on the long end of the yield curve.
Portfolio impact
02Waivers during the election period weigh on fiscal perception.
Offset by oil revenue.
What would change the view: Measure extended.
Cheaper gasoline lowers short-term inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗.
Rising oil offsets the effect.
What would change the view: Full pass-through to pumps.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Extension after 30 days
- Gasoline pump prices
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The Finance Ministry presents the cost in different cuts from the R$ 5.2 billion total.