In brief
The STF decided 4 to 3 to keep the Moraes and Mendonça cases separate, but Dino asked for more time and the merits were not voted.
The session had direct accusations between Moraes and Mendonça and the crisis stays open until at least September 23.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
The plenary rejected 4 to 3 the Gilmar Mendes point of order to judge the Moraes and Mendonça cases together, with Fachin, Mendonça, Fux and Cármen Lúcia for separation and Gilmar, Zanin and Moraes for joint analysis, per Agência Brasil and InfoMoney; CNN Brasil and Gazeta do Povo recorded partial tallies during the session.
Procedural decision that sets the rite.
Verified fact · material
Flávio Dino asked for more time and the session was suspended without a vote on the merits of Petition 16,662, on opening an investigation into Moraes; the analysis of the request against Mendonça stays scheduled for September 23, per Agência Brasil, InfoMoney and CNN Brasil.
Delays the decision the market expected.
Verified fact · material
Moraes accused Mendonça of having called the Federal Police and demanded the inclusion of a colleague in the Vorcaro plea deal, and Mendonça replied that the accusation was a lie; Gilmar Mendes and Mendonça also had sharp exchanges, per Agência Brasil and Gazeta do Povo.
Public escalation between justices.
Verified fact
Dias Toffoli declared himself suspect and Nunes Marques impeded, cutting the justices able to vote to nine, per CNN Brasil and Agência Brasil; Cármen Lúcia said the STF had caused civic unease among citizens and criticised the spectacle around the case, per Agência Brasil and Money Times; InfoMoney records a 90-day deadline for Dino to return the case.
Composition and mood of the session.
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
Without a merits decision, the institutional risk premium stays in the long curve and the dollar at least until September 23, when the Mendonça case returns to the plenary.
For banks and for BRB, the paralysis delays answers on the Master caseBanco MasterOrganizationBrazilian mid-sized bank at the center of regulatory probes into asset valuation and funding, whose stress spread to counterparties such as BRB.Open in the Market Map ↗ and keeps uncertainty over the use of evidence from the Vorcaro phone.
Portfolio impact
01Institutional uncertainty keeps the risk premium and implied volatility elevated.
Negative for local risk assets in the short term.
What would change the view: Eases if the plenary decides the merits on 9/23 without new ruptures.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Whether Dino returns the case before 9/23 and whether Fachin schedules both cases together.
- Curve and dollar reaction on Copom and Fed Wednesday.
- New messages from the Vorcaro phone and the PGR request to annul the Federal Police report.
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- CNN and Gazeta published partial tallies (5 to 4 and 3 to 1) during the session; the tally proclaimed at the end was 4 to 3, per Agência Brasil and InfoMoney.
- The 90-day deadline for the review appears only at InfoMoney.