In brief

The Treasury expects gross debt at 89.7% of GDP in 2030.

It would only decline after that.

What we know

04

  1. Verified fact · material

    The National Treasury published on November 3, 2026 the 8th edition of the Federal Fiscal Risk Report.

    Report.

    Sources[01][02][03]

  2. Verified fact · material

    The report projects general government gross debt at 83.7% of GDP at end-2026 and peaking at 89.7% in 2030.

    Projection.

    Sources[01][02]

  3. Verified fact

    According to CNN Brasil, debt would gradually fall to 86.3% of GDP in 2036.

    Long term.

    Sources[01]

  4. Verified fact

    According to the Finance Ministry, federal exposure to specific risks totaled R$ 4.87 trillion in 2025.

    Risks.

    Sources[03]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

The official projection reinforces the view that fiscal adjustment does not stabilize debt in the short term.

Portfolio impact

01
Juros futurosnegative

Higher debt lifts premium.

Stronger adjustment.

What would change the view: Slow adjustment.

rates15% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • Fiscal adjustment plan
  • Long rate curve

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • The projection depends on rate and growth assumptions.

Full sources

03
01
CNN Brasil MoneyDívida bruta do governo alcançará pico de 89,7% do PIB em 2030, diz Tesouroindependent newsroom
02
Gazeta do PovoTesouro prevê dívida bruta em 89,7% do PIB em 2030 com pressão de juros elevadosindependent newsroom
03
Ministério da FazendaTesouro publica Relatório de Riscos Fiscais da Uniãoofficial source
06