In brief

USDA raised US corn yield and corn and soybeanSoybeansAssetBrazil's main agricultural commodity, with the country the world's largest producer and exporter, traded on the CBOT in Chicago and priced at Brazilian ports at a premium over Chicago.Open in the Market Map ↗ stocks.

Corn fell about 4.5% in Chicago.

What we know

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  1. Verified fact · material

    USDA raised its estimated US corn yield from 178.5 to 181.2 bushels per acre.

    More supply.

    Sources[01][02]

  2. Verified fact · material

    USDA raised US corn ending stocks above expectations.

    Ample supply.

    Sources[01][02]

  3. Verified fact · material

    USDA also raised US soybeanSoybeansAssetBrazil's main agricultural commodity, with the country the world's largest producer and exporter, traded on the CBOT in Chicago and priced at Brazilian ports at a premium over Chicago.Open in the Market Map ↗ stocks above market expectations.

    Pressure on soybeans.

    Sources[01][02]

  4. Verified fact · material

    The December corn contract fell about 4.5% in Chicago after the report.

    Immediate price reaction.

    Sources[01][02]

  5. Verified fact

    According to CNN Brasil, US soybeanSoybeansAssetBrazil's main agricultural commodity, with the country the world's largest producer and exporter, traded on the CBOT in Chicago and priced at Brazilian ports at a premium over Chicago.Open in the Market Map ↗ ending stocks were estimated at 8.57 million tonnes, against 8.05 million expected.

    Report figure.

    Sources[02]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

The USDA report expands US supply and pressures corn and soybeanSoybeansAssetBrazil's main agricultural commodity, with the country the world's largest producer and exporter, traded on the CBOT in Chicago and priced at Brazilian ports at a premium over Chicago.Open in the Market Map ↗ prices, weighing on Brazilian agricultural exporters' revenue at a time of a stronger real.

Portfolio impact

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Soja e milho (Chicago)negative

Higher stocks pressure prices.

Strong Chinese demand.

What would change the view: US crop confirmed.

commodity40% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • Brazil's soybeanSoybeansAssetBrazil's main agricultural commodity, with the country the world's largest producer and exporter, traded on the CBOT in Chicago and priced at Brazilian ports at a premium over Chicago.Open in the Market Map ↗ planting
  • Next WASDE report

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • Sources cite different closing levels for corn.

Full sources

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01
Money TimesMilho despenca em Chicago após USDA elevar a previsão de produtividade nos EUAindependent newsroom
02
CNN BrasilUSDA eleva estoques de soja e milho dos EUA acima do esperado pelo mercadoindependent newsroom
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