In brief
Conab closed the 2025/26 crop at 361.7 million tonnes, a record, with soybeans at 180.4 million and cotton at 4.14 million.
Rice, beans and wheat fell, and soybeanSoybeansAssetBrazil's main agricultural commodity, with the country the world's largest producer and exporter, traded on the CBOT in Chicago and priced at Brazilian ports at a premium over Chicago.Open in the Market Map ↗ exports are projected at 116.2 million tonnes.
What we know
04Verified fact
SoybeanSoybeansAssetBrazil's main agricultural commodity, with the country the world's largest producer and exporter, traded on the CBOT in Chicago and priced at Brazilian ports at a premium over Chicago.Open in the Market Map ↗ exports are projected at a record 116.2 million tonnes, per CNN Brasil; the sorghum change appears as 20.4% at Conab and 32.9% at CNN, distinct base cuts.
Exports and declared divergence.
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
For SLC, BrasilAgro and traders, the record soybeanSoybeansAssetBrazil's main agricultural commodity, with the country the world's largest producer and exporter, traded on the CBOT in Chicago and priced at Brazilian ports at a premium over Chicago.Open in the Market Map ↗ volume offsets part of the Chicago price drop; for meatpackers, abundant corn holds feed costs.
Falling rice and wheat keep import and consumer price pressure, with an effect on food IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗.
Portfolio impact
01Record supply pressures domestic prices but lifts export volume and dollar revenue.
Mixed: high volume, pressured price.
What would change the view: Depends on the exchange rate and Chinese demand in the second half.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- First 2026/27 crop survey in October.
- Pace of soybeanSoybeansAssetBrazil's main agricultural commodity, with the country the world's largest producer and exporter, traded on the CBOT in Chicago and priced at Brazilian ports at a premium over Chicago.Open in the Market Map ↗ and corn shipments at Secex in September.
- Chicago prices after the September USDA report.
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The sorghum percentage change differs between Conab (20.4%) and CNN (32.9%); the 7.35 million volume matches.
- The soybeanSoybeansAssetBrazil's main agricultural commodity, with the country the world's largest producer and exporter, traded on the CBOT in Chicago and priced at Brazilian ports at a premium over Chicago.Open in the Market Map ↗ export projection appears only at CNN.