In brief
The US created fewer jobs than expected in September, and unemployment rose to 4.2%.
The data reinforces bets on Fed rate cuts.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
The US economyUnited StatesEconomyU.S. economy and its policies with reach across global markets.Open in the Market Map ↗ created fewer jobs than expected in September.
Indicates a slowdown.
Verified fact
According to InfoMoney, 29,000 jobs were created, against a forecast of about 90,000.
Sizes the surprise.
Sources[01]Verified fact
According to InfoMoney, August data was revised from 162,000 to 133,000 jobs.
Reinforces the slowdown.
Sources[01]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
Weak employment supports expectations of lower US rates and helped the Brazilian stock market in the last session before the election.
Portfolio impact
01Realpositive
Lower US rates tend to weaken the dollar.
Election outlook dominates FX.
What would change the view: Fed cuts rates.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- US consumer inflation
- Next Fed meeting
- Dollar against the real
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The number of jobs and the forecast were reported by a single source read.