In brief

Industrial output fell 0.6% in August from July, according to IBGE.

Year on year, the decline was 1.2%.

What we know

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  1. Verified fact · material

    Industrial output fell 0.6% in August compared with July, according to IBGE.

    Measures the industry pace.

  2. Verified fact · material

    The data was released by IBGE on October 2.

    Dates the release.

    Sources[01][02]
  3. Verified fact

    According to Agência Brasil, industry fell 1.2% from August 2025 and is up 0.8% year to date.

    Shows the trend.

    Sources[01]
  4. Verified fact

    According to Agência Brasil, output stands 1.3% above the February 2020 level.

    Compares with pre-pandemic.

    Sources[01]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

The industry decline, combined with worsening confidence, reinforces the reading of a slowing economy and may bring forward the debate on Selic cuts.

Portfolio impact

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Juros futurospositive

Weaker activity may open room for Selic cuts.

Inflation still above target.

What would change the view: Further weak data.

rates20% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • August retail and services
  • August IBC-Br
  • Copom communication

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • Annual and year-to-date comparisons were reported by a single source read.

Full sources

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