Focus survey raises 2026 IPCA forecast to 5.22%, a fourth straight increase, and lowers the year-end Selic forecast to 13.25%
The central bank's Focus survey of October 13 raised the median 2026 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ forecast from 5.01% to 5.22%, a fourth straight weekly increase, after September's above-forecast IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗. The year-end 2026 Selic forecast fell from 13.50% to 13.25%.
2sources
2independent groups
2dpublished
In brief
Focus raised the 2026 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ forecast to 5.22%, a fourth straight rise.
The year-end Selic forecast fell to 13.25%.
What we know
04
01
Verified fact · material
The October 13 Focus survey raised the median 2026 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ forecast from 5.01% to 5.22%, a fourth straight weekly increase.
The mix of rising expected inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ and falling expected Selic suggests the market sees the central bank cutting rates even with expectations above the ceiling, which tends to pressure the long end of the curve.
Portfolio impact
01
Juros futuros (DI)negative
Rising expectations pressure the curve.
Tax relief lowers short-term IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗.
What would change the view: Copom signaling caution.
rates35% confidence
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
Next Copom meeting
October IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗-15
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
The effect of the gasoline tax relief on forecasts does not yet show.