In brief
IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ slowed to 0.14% in October.
Over 12 months, however, inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ stands at 4.63%, above the target ceiling.
What we know
05Verified fact · material
Over 12 months, the IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ reached 4.63%, above the 4.5% target ceiling.
InflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ outside the target.
Verified fact
Food and beverages rose 1.04% in October, according to Gazeta do Povo.
Food pressure.
Sources[03]Verified fact
Residential electricity fell 1.92% as the tariff flag moved from yellow to green, according to Agência Brasil.
Energy relief.
Sources[01]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
The benign monthly print does not bring 12-month inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ under the ceiling, supporting high rates for longer.
Portfolio impact
01InflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ above ceiling supports rates.
Benign monthly, high 12-month.
What would change the view: Stable expectations.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- November IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗
- Copom communication
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The slowdown partly depends on the tariff flag, which may change.