In brief
Focus now projects a 13.75% Selic at end-2026.
The 2027 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ forecast rose to 4.90%.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
The 2027 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ forecast rose from 4.76% to 4.90%, and the 2026 forecast held at 5.22%.
InflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗.
Verified fact
According to Agência Brasil, the 2026 GDP forecast moved from 1.76% to 1.75%.
Activity.
Sources[01]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
The revision cements the higher-for-longer rate view.
Portfolio impact
01Higher for longer.
InflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ eases.
What would change the view: InflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ persists.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Copom minutes
- October IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- These are market forecasts, not Central Bank decisions.