In brief

The IGP-DI rose 1.50% in September after 0.06% in August.

The producer index rose 1.95%.

What we know

04

  1. Verified fact · material

    The IGP-DI rose 1.50% in September after 0.06% in August, according to FGV.

    Sharp monthly acceleration.

    Sources[01][02]

  2. Verified fact · material

    The PPI rose 1.95%, the CPI 0.67% and the construction index 0.22%; the index is up 3.80% over 12 months.

    Pressure concentrated in wholesale.

    Sources[01][02]

  3. Verified fact

    According to CNN Brasil, wholesale gains were driven by soybeans, soybean meal, corn and gasoline.

    Commodities lead.

    Sources[01]

  4. Verified fact

    According to Correio Braziliense, the index is up 3.72% year to date.

    Year-to-date.

    Sources[02]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

The sharp rise in wholesale prices in September, driven by commodities and fuel, increases the risk of pass-through to the IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ in the fourth quarter and limits room for fast Selic cuts.

Portfolio impact

01
Juros futurosnegative

Wholesale inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ pressures expectations.

A stronger real may offset.

What would change the view: Pass-through to the IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗.

rates30% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • September IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗
  • October IGP-M

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • Pass-through to consumers depends on the currency.

Full sources

02
01
CNN BrasilIGP-DI acelera alta a 1,50% em setembro com commodities e energia, diz FGVindependent newsroom
02
Correio BrazilienseIGP-DI acelera para 1,50% em setembro, influenciado por commodities agrícolas e energiaindependent newsroom
06