In brief

Manufacturing real revenue fell 3.5% in August, according to CNI.

In July, it fell 2.2%.

What we know

04

  1. Verified fact · material

    Manufacturing real revenue fell 3.5% in August, according to CNI.

    Shows industry losing steam.

    Sources[01][02]

  2. Verified fact · material

    In July, revenue had fallen 2.2%.

    Marks two straight declines.

    Sources[01][02]

  3. Verified fact

    The data are part of the Industrial Indicators released by CNI on October 7.

    Data source.

    Sources[01][02]

  4. Verified fact

    According to Correio Braziliense, the eight-month cumulative figure was 0.2%.

    Year context.

    Sources[02]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

The string of industrial declines reinforces expectations of weaker second-half GDPGDPMacroAggregate measure of the goods and services produced by an economy.Open in the Market Map ↗, giving arguments for rate cuts despite rising inflation expectations.

Portfolio impact

01
Juros futurosnegative

Weaker activity eases pressure on rates.

Inflation may dominate the decision.

What would change the view: Confirmation by September output.

rates20% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • September industrial output
  • Third-quarter GDPGDPMacroAggregate measure of the goods and services produced by an economy.Open in the Market Map ↗

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • Sources did not detail the comparison base.

Full sources

02
01
Agência BrasilFaturamento da indústria cai 3,5% em agosto, informa CNIindependent newsroom
02
Correio BrazilienseFaturamento da indústria de transformação recua 3,5% em agosto, indica CNIindependent newsroom
06