In brief

Industrial output fell 0.8% in September.

Industry has lost 4.1% since May.

What we know

04

  1. Verified fact · material

    Industrial output fell 0.8% in September 2026 from August, according to IBGE, more than the expected 0.4% drop.

    Decline.

    Sources[01][02][03]

  2. Verified fact · material

    Industry has lost 4.1% since May.

    Cumulative.

    Sources[02][03]

  3. Verified fact · material

    In September, 17 of 25 surveyed activities fell and extractive industry rose 1.7%.

    Activities.

    Sources[01][02][03]

  4. Verified fact

    According to InfoMoney, manufacturing fell 3.8% from September 2025.

    Manufacturing.

    Sources[01]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

The string of declines reinforces the slowdown under 13.75% rates.

Portfolio impact

01
Juros futurospositive

Weak activity supports future cuts.

Sticky inflation.

What would change the view: Inflation eases.

rates10% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • Q3 GDPGDPMacroAggregate measure of the goods and services produced by an economy.Open in the Market Map ↗
  • October output

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • Sources count the string of declines differently.

Full sources

03
01
InfoMoneyProdução industrial cai 0,8% em setembroindependent newsroom
02
Agência BrasilProdução da indústria recua 0,8% em setembroindependent newsroom
03
Gazeta do PovoProdução industrial recua 0,8% em setembro e acumula perda de 4,1% desde maioindependent newsroom
06