In brief

The services sector fell 0.1% in September, both month on month and year on year.

It was the first annual drop after 29 straight gains.

What we know

04

  1. Verified fact · material

    Services sector volume fell 0.1% in September from August, according to IBGE.

    Signals loss of momentum.

    Sources[01][02][03]

  2. Verified fact · material

    Year on year, the drop was 0.1%, ending 29 straight positive readings.

    Breaks a long streak.

    Sources[01][02][03]

  3. Verified fact

    Transport and information and communication each fell 0.5% in the month.

    Shows the drivers of the drop.

    Sources[01][02]

  4. Verified fact

    The sector stood 0.4% below its October 2025 peak.

    Places the level.

    Sources[01][02]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

The data reinforce a weaker activity reading, weighing on Selic bets for 2027.

Portfolio impact

01
DI jan/2028negative

Weaker activity eases rate pressure.

May lower short rates.

What would change the view: Confirmation in upcoming data.

rates30% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • 3Q GDPGDPMacroAggregate measure of the goods and services produced by an economy.Open in the Market Map ↗
  • Services inflation

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • September had one fewer business day than in 2025.

Full sources

03
01
InfoMoneySetor de serviços recua 0,1% em setembro, aponta IBGEindependent newsroom
02
Agência BrasilSetor de serviços varia -0,1% em setembro, impactado pelos transportesindependent newsroom
03
CNN Brasil MoneySetor de serviços volta a registrar queda e cai 0,1% em setembro, diz IBGEindependent newsroom
06