In brief
What we know
04Verified fact · material
The median for 2026 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ was steady at 5.22%.
InflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ steady.
Verified fact
According to Correio Braziliense, the 2027 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ forecast is 4.32% and the 2027 GDPGDPMacroAggregate measure of the goods and services produced by an economy.Open in the Market Map ↗ forecast 1.40%.
2027 horizon.
Sources[01]Verified fact
According to Correio Braziliense, the projected Selic for end-2026 is 13.25%.
Rates.
Sources[01]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
The small GDPGDPMacroAggregate measure of the goods and services produced by an economy.Open in the Market Map ↗ revision does not change the picture, but expected inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ remains far from target.
Portfolio impact
01High expected inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ supports rates.
Slower growth eases.
What would change the view: IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ stays high.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Next Focus
- Copom decision
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- Sources differ on the dollar forecast, so it is not reported as fact.