In brief

The audit court calculated the 2027 CBS at 11.3%.

The figure is above the government projection.

What we know

04

  1. Verified fact · material

    The audit court calculated the 2027 CBS reference rate at 11.3%.

    Calculation.

    Sources[01][02][03]

  2. Verified fact · material

    The rate is above the economic team 9.21% projection.

    Comparison.

    Sources[02][03]

  3. Verified fact

    According to Agência Senado, the rate is set only by Senate resolution; without it, the audit court figure applies.

    Senate.

    Sources[01]

  4. Verified fact

    According to Times Brasil, the food industry asked the Senate to review the parameters.

    Industry.

    Sources[03]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

The high number fuels fears of a total VAT near 30%, but may still change in the Senate.

Portfolio impact

01
Varejo e consumonegative

Higher burden weighs on prices.

Senate cuts.

What would change the view: Senate keeps it.

sector15% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • Senate resolution
  • Sector reaction

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • Sources differ on the Senate deadline.

Full sources

03
01
Agência SenadoReforma tributária: TCU calcula alíquota da CBS em 11,3% para 2027official source
02
CNN BrasilProposta do TCU para CBS acende alerta para IVA de 30% no Brasilindependent newsroom
03
Times Brasil | CNBCIndústria de alimentos alerta para alta de preços com CBS de 11,3%independent newsroom
06