Fed holds rates at 3.75% to 4% with two votes for a hike

In brief

The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4%.

Two members voted for a hike.

Verified fact · material
The Federal Reserve held the US policy rate at 3.75% to 4% on October 28, 2026.
Decision.
Sources[01][02]
Verified fact · material
The decision had two dissents favoring a 0.25 point hike.
Split.
Sources[01][02]
Verified fact
According to CNN Brasil, the CME FedWatch tool moved to an 87.4% chance of a December hike.
Expectation.
Sources[02]
Verified fact
According to Bloomberg Línea, the Fed said more data will help the next decision.
Signal.
Sources[01]

Transmission to assets

The chance of a December hike adds pressure on the real and Brazilian rates.

USD/BRLnegative

High US rates attract capital.

Inflation eases.

What would change the view: Fed hikes in December.

currency20% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

Limits of the reporting