In brief

4% in the runoff, a technical tie with a 1-point margin.

Lula beats the other rivals by wider margins.

What we know

04

  1. Verified fact · material

    The AtlasIntel poll released on September 23 shows Lula with 47.7% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 47.4% in the runoff, a technical tie within the 1-point margin of error.

    Confirms an open race in the final stretch.

    Sources[01][02]

  2. Verified fact · material

    The poll interviewed 5,015 voters from September 17 to 22, with a 1-point margin, 95% confidence and TSE registration BR-04739/2026, commissioned by Bloomberg.

    Largest sample of the final stretch.

    Sources[01][02][03]

  3. Verified fact · material

    In the other runoff scenarios, Lula has 47.6% against 42.2% for Romeu Zema, 46.6% against 44% for Ronaldo Caiado and 46.2% against 39.4% for Augusto Cury.

    Shows the tie is specific to Flávio.

    Sources[01][03]

  4. Verified fact

    According to Gazeta do Povo, in valid votes Lula has 50.2% and Flávio 49.8% in the runoff, and 46.3% to 43.9% in the first round, with Renan Santos third (4.6%); Bloomberg Línea reports 45.8% to 43.4% in the first round in total votes.

    Records both calculation bases.

    Sources[02][03]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

Convergence among AtlasIntel, QuaestBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ and BTG/Nexus on a technical tie leaves the market without a base case until October 4: the currency and the long end keep carrying a premium, and one-point poll moves start to move prices.

Lula wide lead over the other names reduces the option value of a change of opposition candidate.

Portfolio impact

01
Câmbio e DI longouncertain

A technical tie keeps the electoral risk premium without direction.

Elevated volatility until October 4.

What would change the view: New polls confirming the tie.

macro50% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • DatafolhaBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ and QuaestBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ in the final week before the first round
  • Final TV debates
  • Reaction of the currency and the long end to upcoming polls

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • Sources publish figures on different bases, total and valid votes, which explains the gap between 47.7% and 50.2% for Lula.

Full sources

03
01
CNN BrasilAtlas/Bloomberg: Lula tem 47,7% no 2º turno; Flávio, 47,4%independent newsroom
02
Bloomberg LíneaLula e Flávio Bolsonaro mantêm empate em pesquisa AtlasIntel às vésperas da eleiçãoindependent newsroom
03
Gazeta do PovoAtlasIntel divulga pesquisa a presidente da República; veja como evolui a disputaindependent newsroom
06