Gerp shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 53%

In brief

Gerp shows Flávio at 53% and Lula at 47% of valid votes.

The margin is 2 points.

Verified fact · material
The Gerp poll released on October 21, 2026 shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 53% and Lula at 47% of valid votes in the runoff.
Lead.
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Verified fact · material
The survey interviewed 2,400 voters by phone from October 19 to 21, with a 2-point margin, registration BR-03835/2026.
Methodology.
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Verified fact
According to CNN Brasil, Gerp's previous round showed Flávio at 52% and Lula at 48%.
Previous round.
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Verified fact
According to CNN Brasil, the poll was self-funded by the institute.
Funding.
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Transmission to assets

Pollsters differ on the size of the lead, keeping uncertainty until the vote.

USD/BRLuncertain

Polls move the risk premium.

Other polls differ.

What would change the view: Confirmed at the polls.

currency20% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

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