In brief

Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff with 51.79% of valid votes.

He will serve a fourth term.

What we know

05

  1. Verified fact · material

    Lula (PT) was reelected president in the October 25, 2026 runoff, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).

    Result.

    Sources[01][02][03]

  2. Verified fact · material

    Lula received more than 64 million votes in the runoff.

    Votes.

    Sources[01][02]

  3. Verified fact · material

    Lula had 51.79% of valid votes, against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro.

    Score.

    Sources[03][04]

  4. Verified fact

    According to Money Times, the margin was 4,430,191 votes, larger than in 2014 and 2022.

    Margin.

    Sources[04]

  5. Verified fact

    According to Bloomberg Línea, Lula gained about 10 million votes between the first round and the runoff.

    Swing.

    Sources[02]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

The narrow win keeps the government dependent on Congress and fiscal policy at the center of debate.

Portfolio impact

01
Ibovespanegative

Market reprices fiscal risk.

Credible economic team.

What would change the view: Weak fiscal signals.

macro30% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • Signals on the economic team
  • FX and rates reaction

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • The final official TSE result was not read directly.

Full sources

04
01
Agência BrasilLula agradece votos e diz que teve de vencer intromissão vinda de foraindependent newsroom
02
Bloomberg LíneaLula teve 10 milhões de votos a mais no 2º turno e reduziu vantagem de Flávioindependent newsroom
03
InfoMoneyETF do Brasil no exterior, EWZ, cai quase 20% no aftermarket com reeleição de Lulaindependent newsroom
04
Money TimesDiferença de Lula para Flávio foi de 4.430.191 votosindependent newsroom
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