In brief
Vox shows Lula at 50.6% and Flávio at 49.4% of valid votes.
It is a statistical tie.
What we know
04Verified fact
According to CNN Brasil, the poll is registered as BR-03259/2026.
Registration.
Sources[01]Verified fact
Other recent polls, such as Gerp and QuaestBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗, showed Flávio narrowly ahead.
Contrast.
Sources[01]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
Final polls differ on who leads, keeping uncertainty until Sunday's vote.
Portfolio impact
01USD/BRLuncertain
Polls move the risk premium.
Sunday's result.
What would change the view: New polls.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Eve-of-vote polls
- Runoff on October 25
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The poll measures intention at a point in time and may differ from the result.