In brief

AtlasIntel shows Lula with 46.7% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 43.8% in the first round.

In the runoff, the two are tied.

What we know

04

  1. Verified fact · material

    In the AtlasIntel poll released on October 3, Lula has 46.7% and Flávio Bolsonaro 43.8% of total first-round votes.

    Shows Lula lead in the first round.

    Sources[01][02]

  2. Verified fact · material

    In first-round valid votes, Lula has 47% and Flávio 44.1%.

    Indicates a runoff.

    Sources[01][02][03]

  3. Verified fact · material

    In the runoff simulation, Lula has 50.1% and Flávio 49.9% of valid votes.

    Shows a statistical tie.

    Sources[02][04]

  4. Verified fact

    According to Money Times, the margin of error is 1 point and the poll is registered as BR-00999/2026.

    Gives technical context.

    Sources[01]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

With a tied runoff, the market should keep a high risk premium until the final result, with assets reacting immediately to the first-round count.

Portfolio impact

01
Ibovespa, dólar e juros futurosuncertain

A tight race keeps a high risk premium.

Polls may be wrong.

What would change the view: First-round result.

macro40% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • First-round vote count
  • Market open on Monday
  • Runoff polls

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • Polls may diverge from the actual result.

Full sources

04
01
Money TimesLula tem 46,7% e Flávio Bolsonaro 43,8% no primeiro turno, mostra pesquisa AtlasIntelindependent newsroom
02
InfoMoneyAtlasIntel na reta final: Lula tem 47% dos votos válidos e Flávio 44% em 1º turnoindependent newsroom
03
CNN BrasilAtlas: Lula tem 47% dos votos válidos no 1º turno; Flávio, 44,1%independent newsroom
04
CNN BrasilAtlas: Lula tem 50,1% dos votos válidos no 2º turno; Flávio, 49,9%independent newsroom
06