BTG/Nexus poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 50.3%

In brief

BTG/Nexus shows Flávio at 50.3% and Lula at 49.7% of valid votes.

It is a statistical tie.

Verified fact · material
The BTG/Nexus poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 50.3% and Lula at 49.7% of valid votes in the runoff.
Statistical tie.
Sources[01][02]
Verified fact · material
The survey interviewed 2,002 voters by phone from October 16 to 18, 2026, with a 2-point margin of error, and was released on October 19.
Methodology.
Sources[01][02]
Verified fact
According to Times Brasil, in the previous round Flávio had 51.6% and Lula 48.4%.
Narrower lead.
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Verified fact
The poll is commissioned by BTG Pactual.
Sponsor.
Sources[01]

Transmission to assets

The run of polls with a narrower Flávio lead reinforces the view of a race open to the end.

USD/BRLuncertain

Tight race sustains risk premium.

Already priced.

What would change the view: New polls.

currency30% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

Limits of the reporting