In brief
DatafolhaBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 52% of valid votes and Lula with 48% in the runoff.
In total votes, 49% to 45%.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
In the first DatafolhaBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ runoff poll, released on October 8, Flávio Bolsonaro has 49% of total votes and Lula 45%.
Shows Flávio ahead.
Verified fact
According to Exame, a Vox Brasil poll shows Lula with 44.2% and Flávio with 42.7% in the runoff.
Another poll differs.
Sources[03]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
Flávio's lead in the first DatafolhaBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ reinforces the market's post-first-round reading, but the technical tie within the margin and diverging polls keep currency and rate volatility risk until October 25.
Portfolio impact
01Flávio's lead supports a lower risk premium.
A technical tie within the margin.
What would change the view: New polls confirming the lead.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Next DatafolhaBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ and QuaestBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ polls
- Runoff debates
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- Field dates differ across sources.