Ipespe shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 51.2%

In brief

Ipespe shows Flávio at 51.2% and Lula at 48.8% of valid votes.

The gap is near the margin.

Verified fact · material
The Ipespe/Abrapel poll released on October 17, 2026 shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 51.2% and Lula at 48.8% of valid votes in the runoff.
Tight race.
Sources[01][02]
Verified fact · material
The survey interviewed 1,500 voters from October 13 to 15, with a 2.6-point margin of error.
Methodology.
Sources[01][02]
Verified fact
According to Money Times, in the previous round Flávio had 52.7% and Lula 47.3%, and the lead fell about 3 points.
Smaller lead.
Sources[01]
Verified fact
According to Times Brasil, the poll was self-funded by Ipespe.
Funding.
Sources[02]

Transmission to assets

Flávio's narrower lead in Ipespe reinforces the view of an open race a week before the runoff.

USD/BRLuncertain

Tight race sustains the risk premium.

Already priced.

What would change the view: New polls.

currency30% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

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