In brief
QuaestBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ shows Flávio at 46% and Lula at 44% in the runoff.
The two are statistically tied.
What we know
05Verified fact · material
The QuaestBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ poll released on October 14, 2026 shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 46% and Lula at 44% of total votes in the runoff.
Flávio leads numerically.
Verified fact
In valid votes, Flávio has 51% and Lula 49%, according to Bloomberg Línea.
Another cut.
Sources[06]Verified fact
According to Times Brasil, the poll interviewed 2,154 voters between October 10 and 13, at a 95% confidence level, and was commissioned by Globo.
Methodology.
Sources[03]Verified fact
According to Seu Dinheiro, it is QuaestBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗'s first runoff poll.
First reading.
Sources[05]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
The statistical tie supports the view of an open race, which tends to keep a risk premium in the currency and rate futures until the vote.
Portfolio impact
01A tight race keeps a risk premium in the currency.
The market may have already priced the scenario.
What would change the view: New polls.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Upcoming runoff polls
- Reaction in the dollar and rate futures
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- Polls measure intention at a point in time and may change before the election.