In brief

The September 15 CNT/MDA gives Lula 47.3% against 40% for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff, outside the margin of error.

The lead was 8.9 points in August and fell to 7.3, with Lula beating every opponent tested.

What we know

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  1. Verified fact · material

    In the runoff, Lula has 47.3% against 40.0% for Flávio Bolsonaro, with 10.2% blank and null and 2.5% undecided, a lead outside the 2.2 point margin, per CNN Brasil, Gazeta do Povo and InfoMoney.

    The number that defines the event.

    Sources[01][02][03]

  2. Verified fact · material

    The poll interviewed 2,002 voters in person between September 9 and 13, with a 2.2 point margin and 95% confidence, registered with the TSE as BR-06902/2026, per CNN Brasil, Gazeta do Povo and InfoMoney.

    Method and registration.

    Sources[01][02][03]

  3. Verified fact · material

    Lula beats every opponent tested in the runoff: Cury 45.3% to 38.4%, Caiado 46.4% to 37.3%, Zema 47.7% to 34.5% and Renan Santos 47.3% to 33.9%, per CNN Brasil and Gazeta do Povo; in the August round the score against Flávio was 48.0% to 39.1%, per InfoMoney.

    Alternative scenarios and trend.

    Sources[01][02][03]

  4. Verified fact

    In the prompted first round, Lula has 40.5%, Flávio Bolsonaro 30.4%, Augusto Cury 6%, Ronaldo Caiado 3% and Renan Santos 2.7%, with 7.5% undecided; rejection is 44.2% for Flávio and 41.1% for Lula, per Gazeta do Povo.

    First round and rejection, one source.

    Sources[02]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

Two polls in two days point to different magnitudes: a technical tie at Nexus and seven points at CNT/MDA; the market tends to weigh the average and keep the election premium.

A Lula lead outside the margin lowers the probability of alternation that underpinned bets on long-rate compression after the election.

Portfolio impact

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Dólar e DI longouncertain

A Lula lead outside the margin trims the alternation bet, but Nexus showed a tie.

No clear directional trigger.

What would change the view: Changes if the next rounds converge.

macro40% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • Next DatafolhaBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ and QuaestBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ rounds.
  • Dollar and long curve reaction in this Copom and Fed week.
  • Effect of the STF crisis on the next polls.

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • The first round and rejection appear only at Gazeta do Povo; CNN does not carry them.
  • The comparison with August comes from InfoMoney, which reproduces Estadão Conteúdo.

Full sources

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01
CNN BrasilCNT/MDA: Lula tem 47,3% e Flávio, 40% no 2º turnoindependent newsroom
02
Gazeta do PovoCNT/MDA divulga pesquisa eleitoral a presidente da República; veja os númerosindependent newsroom
03
InfoMoneyCNT/MDA: Lula passa de 48% para 47,3% no 2º turno; Flávio oscila de 39,1% a 40%independent newsroom
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