In brief
US CPI rose 0.6% in September.
Over 12 months it is up 3.7%.
What we know
04Verified fact
According to InfoMoney, the annual rate was above the 3.6% expected.
Surprise.
Sources[01]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
Headline inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ pushed by energy contrasts with a more contained core, splitting the read on the Fed.
Portfolio impact
01USD/BRLnegative
High US rates strengthen the dollar.
Contained core.
What would change the view: Hawkish Fed.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Next Fed decision
- 10-year Treasuries
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- Energy's effect on inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ may be temporary.