Datafolha: Lula has 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro 44% in the runoff, a technical tie, and 39% to 36% in the first round

1. 01

   Verified fact · material

   In the runoff, Lula has 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro 44%, with 8% blank and null, a technical tie within the two point margin and figures identical to the September 11 DatafolhaBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ poll.

   No change after the Supreme Court crisis.

   Sources[01][02][03]
2. 02

   Verified fact · material

   In the stimulated first round, Lula has 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro 36%, followed by Augusto Cury with 6%, Ronaldo Caiado with 4%, Renan Santos with 3% and Romeu Zema with 2%; blank and null total 6%.

   Confirms the polarised race between two names.

   Sources[01][04][05]
3. 03

   Verified fact · material

   The poll interviewed 2,002 voters in person between September 15 and 17, with a two point margin of error and a 95% confidence level, registered with the electoral court under number BR-04029/2026.

   Standard institute methodology.

   Sources[01][02]
4. 04

   Context

   In other runoff scenarios, Lula ties with Augusto Cury at 44% to 44%, beats Caiado 46% to 42% and Zema 49% to 39%.

   Cury appears as a competitive alternative.

   Sources[01]
5. 05

   Context

   It is the first poll after the September 15 Supreme Court session that discussed opening an investigation into Justice Alexandre de Moraes in the Master case; fieldwork ended before the Bolsa Família increase was announced.

   Effect of the increase not yet measured.

   Sources[02][05]

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Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.