In brief
DatafolhaBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ shows Lula ahead by 4 points in the first round and technically tied with Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff, 46% to 44%.
Flávio rose 2 points and Lula 1 since September 3, within the margin of error.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
A DatafolhaBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ poll released on September 11 shows Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% of first-round voting intentions, 43% to 38% of valid votes, with Augusto Cury 6%, Ronaldo Caiado 4%, Renan Santos 3% and Romeu Zema 2%, from 38% and 33% in the September 3 round, per InfoMoney and Seu Dinheiro.
Result that defines the event.
Verified fact · material
In the runoff, Lula has 46% against 44% for Flávio Bolsonaro, a technical tie within the 2-point margin; the poll surveyed 2,002 voters aged 16 and over between September 8 and 10, registered as BR-01833/2026, per Seu Dinheiro and InfoMoney.
Decisive scenario for the electoral premium.
Verified fact
In the other runoff scenarios, Lula has 45% against 43% for Cury, 46% against 41% for Caiado, 48% against 39% for Zema and 48% against 37% for Renan Santos, per Seu Dinheiro.
Alternative scenarios.
Sources[02]Verified fact
In São Paulo, DatafolhaBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ shows Tarcísio de Freitas at 49% against 29% for Fernando Haddad for state governor, per O Globo; the Ibovespa fell 0.44% on September 11 on Supreme Court tension and profit-taking, but rose 1.1% on the week, per Exame and Poder360.
State scenario and equity reaction.
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
For the Ibovespa and the real, the technical tie keeps alive the alternation thesis that drove the past four weeks' rally, but the narrower 4-point gap came alongside Lula gaining 1 point, and the market reads the poll as neutral.
The Master case, with a Supreme Court session on September 15, is the next mover of voting intentions.
Portfolio impact
01A technical tie keeps the alternation premium, but Lula's gain caps the upside.
Neutral to slightly positive for domestic assets.
What would change the view: Depends on the next polls and the Supreme Court on 9/15.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Next DatafolhaBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ round and the QuaestBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ and Genial polls in the week of 9/14.
- Ibovespa and dollar reaction at the 9/14 open.
- Effect of the 9/15 Supreme Court session on Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy.
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- InfoMoney dates the fieldwork 9/8 to 9/10 and Seu Dinheiro 9/8 to 9/11: a publication cut, not fieldwork.
- The effect on the electoral trade is an editorial reading, not stated by sources.