In brief
QuaestBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ shows Flávio at 45% and Lula at 44%.
The Ibovespa fell that day.
What we know
05Verified fact · material
The QuaestBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ poll released on October 21, 2026 shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and Lula at 44% in the runoff, a tie within the 2-point margin.
Tie.
Verified fact
According to Poder360, the survey interviewed 2,154 voters from October 17 to 20.
Methodology.
Sources[02]Verified fact
Sources attribute the stock drop to the poll; the link is a market reading.
Attribution.
Sources[01]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
Polls show an open race, and assets swing with each release.
Portfolio impact
01Ibovespauncertain
Tight race raises caution.
Supportive global backdrop.
What would change the view: New polls.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Final polls
- Runoff on October 25
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- QuaestBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗'s figures include blank and null votes, unlike valid-vote polls.