In brief

Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round with about 47% of valid votes, against about 45% for Lula.

The two face a runoff on October 25.

What we know

06

  1. Verified fact · material

    Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) led the vote in the October 4 presidential first round and will face Lula (PT) in the runoff.

    Sets the final presidential contest.

    Sources[01][02][03][04]

  2. Verified fact · material

    With more than 99.9% of sections counted, Flávio had about 47% of valid votes and Lula about 45%, according to Agência Senado and CNN Brasil.

    Shows a lead of about 2 points for Flávio.

    Sources[01][03]

  3. Verified fact · material

    The presidential runoff is scheduled for October 25.

    Sets the calendar for election risk.

    Sources[01][05]

  4. Verified fact · material

    First-round abstention was 21.07% of the electorate, about 33 million voters, according to TSE data.

    Shows how many voters are in play for the runoff.

    Sources[06][07]

  5. Verified fact

    According to Exame, the EWZ ETF, which tracks Brazilian stocks in New York, rose about 10% in Sunday after-hours trading.

    First market reaction to the result.

    Sources[05]

  6. Verified fact

    According to Agência Brasil, the electoral court attributed a delay of about one hour in the count to congestion in its data system.

    Operational context for the count.

    Sources[08]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

Flávio's first-round lead, above what polls indicated, tends to reduce the risk premium priced for a Lula win; the dollar, rate futures and the Ibovespa will now react to runoff polls and alliances until October 25.

Portfolio impact

03
Ibovespa e ações domésticaspositive

A result above the polls reduces the election risk premium.

The race remains open until October 25.

What would change the view: Runoff polls confirming the lead.

macro45% confidence
Real frente ao dólarpositive

A lower risk premium tends to strengthen the real.

The global backdrop may dominate the currency.

What would change the view: Foreign inflows returning to stocks.

currency40% confidence
Juros futurosuncertain

The runoff calendar concentrates volatility until October 25.

The reaction may reverse with new polls.

What would change the view: Candidates' fiscal proposals.

rates35% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • Ibovespa and dollar open on Monday
  • First runoff polls
  • Endorsements from eliminated candidates

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • Final percentages may still shift with the last sections.
  • The runoff may produce a different outcome.

Full sources

08
01
Agência SenadoFlávio Bolsonaro e Lula disputam o segundo turno das eleições para presidenteofficial source
02
Bloomberg LíneaLula e Flávio Bolsonaro vão disputar o segundo turno da eleição presidencialindependent newsroom
03
CNN BrasilFamília Bolsonaro elege deputados, senadores e vai ao 2º turno ao Planaltoindependent newsroom
04
InfoMoneyBrasil entrará na prorrogação das eleições, diz Lulaindependent newsroom
05
ExameEWZ, fundo que replica bolsa brasileira nos EUA, dispara 10% após 1º turno da eleiçãoindependent newsroom
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InfoMoneyAbstenção de 21,07% no 1º turno supera 33 milhões de eleitoresindependent newsroom
07
ExameAbstenções, votos em branco e nulos somam 39,1 milhões no 1º turnoindependent newsroom
08
Agência BrasilCongestionamento no sistema de dados gerou atraso na apuração, diz TSEindependent newsroom
06