States approve ICMS hike on gasoline

In brief

States will raise fuel ICMS in February 2027.

Diesel gets the largest increase.

Verified fact · material
Confaz approved on October 27, 2026 an ICMS hike on gasoline, diesel and cooking gas, effective February 1, 2027.
Approval.
Sources[01][02][03]
Verified fact · material
Gasoline ICMS goes from R$ 1.57 to R$ 1.64 per liter, diesel from R$ 1.17 to R$ 1.30 per liter and cooking gas from R$ 1.47 to R$ 1.54 per kilo.
Amounts.
Sources[01][02][03]
Verified fact
According to Gazeta do Povo, the agreements were published in the official gazette on October 28.
Publication.
Sources[01]
Verified fact
According to CNN Brasil, the diesel increase is about 11.1%.
Diesel.
Sources[03]

Transmission to assets

The increase takes effect in 2027 and adds to the end of the diesel subsidy as an inflation risk.

Combustíveisnegative

Higher tax lifts price.

Oil decline.

What would change the view: Full pass-through.

sector20% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

Limits of the reporting