In brief
The September 14 Nexus shows Lula with 42% against 37% for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round and 47% to 46% in the runoff.
Lula rose 3 and 2 points from the previous round and government approval went to 47%.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
In the prompted first round, Lula has 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro 37%, followed by Augusto Cury with 6%, Ronaldo Caiado with 5% and Renan Santos with 2%, per Correio Braziliense and Gazeta do Povo; Lula rose 3 points and Flávio 2 from the September 8 round, per Correio.
The number that defines the event.
Verified fact · material
In the runoff, Lula has 47% against 46% for Flávio Bolsonaro, a technical tie within the margin, and beats Caiado 47% to 41%, Zema 49% to 38% (Gazeta) or 39% (Correio), Renan Santos 48% to 37% and Cury 45% to 42%, per Correio Braziliense and Gazeta do Povo.
The decisive scenario for the market.
Verified fact · material
Nexus interviewed about 2,000 voters by phone between September 11 and 13, 2,003 per Correio and 2,000 at Gazeta, with a 2 percentage point margin, 95% confidence and TSE registration BR-04076/2026, per Correio Braziliense and Gazeta do Povo.
Method and registration.
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
The technical tie keeps the election risk premium at the long end of the curve and in the dollar, with no trigger for an alternation rally or a stock sell-off.
The poll is commissioned by BTG Pactual, which calls for caution in reading desks linked to the bank; DatafolhaBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ on 9/12 showed 39% to 35% and 46% to 44%.
Portfolio impact
01A technical tie keeps the election premium without a clear direction.
Uncertainty maintained, no directional trigger.
What would change the view: Changes if the next rounds open a lead for either side.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- Next DatafolhaBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗, QuaestBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ and Nexus rounds before 10/4.
- Dollar and long curve reaction in this Copom and Fed week.
- The 9/15 STF session and its effect on the campaign.
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The 2,003 (Correio) and 2,000 (Gazeta) sample is rounding, not a divergence.
- The Lula x Zema scenario appears as 49% to 38% at Gazeta and 49% to 39% at Correio.