In brief
Focus raised the 2026 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ forecast to 5.01%, the third straight increase.
The projected year-end Selic held at 13.50%.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
The 2027 IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ forecast stood at 4.30%.
Keeps inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ above target over the relevant horizon.
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
InflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ expectations rising for a third week reduce the chance of the central bank speeding up cuts, in contrast with the sharp fall in rate futures after the election; the next September IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ reading will be key for that adjustment.
Portfolio impact
01Higher inflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ expectations limit Selic cuts.
The election effect may dominate the curve.
What would change the view: September IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ above forecasts.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- September IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗
- Next Copom meeting
- Next Focus survey
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The Focus survey closed on October 2, before the first round.