In brief

The IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ rose 0.82% in September, above forecasts.

Over 12 months it reaches 4.58%, above the 4.5% ceiling.

What we know

05

  1. Verified fact · material

    The IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ rose 0.82% in September after deflation in August, according to IBGE.

    Sharp monthly acceleration.

    Sources[01][02][03]

  2. Verified fact · material

    Over 12 months, the IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ is up 4.58%.

    Above the 4.5% target ceiling.

    Sources[01][02]

  3. Verified fact · material

    The September result came in above market expectations.

    Upside surprise.

    Sources[01][04]

  4. Verified fact

    According to Agência Brasil, electricity rose 7.98% with the end of the Itaipu bonus, and it is the highest monthly rate since March.

    Electricity drives the index.

    Sources[01]

  5. Verified fact

    According to Agência Brasil, the INPC, used to adjust wages, is up 4.29% over 12 months.

    Affects wage adjustments.

    Sources[05]

Transmission to assets

Market read-through

The upside IPCAInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ surprise, with the 12-month rate above the ceiling, reinforces central bank caution and tends to pressure the short end of the yield curve, even with a stronger real.

Portfolio impact

01
Juros futuros (DI)negative

InflationInflationMacroChange in the price level, tracked in Brazil primarily through the IPCA index.Open in the Market Map ↗ above the ceiling reduces room for Selic cuts.

Strong real and one-off electricity effect.

What would change the view: Copom reinforcing caution.

rates40% confidence

Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.

Next signals

What to watch

  • Next Focus survey
  • Copom communication

Limits of the reporting

What remains uncertain

  • The electricity effect is one-off and may reverse.

Full sources

05
01
Agência BrasilInflação oficial de setembro fica em 0,82%, mostra IBGEindependent newsroom
02
Poder360Inflação sobe 0,82% em setembro; em 12 meses vai a 4,58%independent newsroom
03
Correio BrazilienseIPCA sobe 0,82% em setembro após deflação em agosto, aponta IBGEindependent newsroom
04
Correio BrazilienseInflação acelera acima do esperado pelo mercadoindependent newsroom
05
Agência BrasilINPC, inflação que corrige salários, acumula 4,29% em 12 mesesindependent newsroom
06